Traditionally, the most important data on the US labor market is released on the first Friday of the new month. Today’s Friday will not be an exception, and at 14:30 London time, American labor reports will be issued. According to the consensus forecast, it is expected that the unemployment rate will drop to 6.8% (previous rate 6.9%), change in the number employed in non-agricultural sectors of the economy will be $ 469 thousand (the previous figure is 638 thousand) and the increase in the average hourly wage will remain the same as 0.1%, which was shown a month earlier. These expectations cannot be considered too high, but rather the opposite. The only question is whether unemployment will decrease by 0.1%. This will become known after the release of labor statistics, which will show the pace at which the world’s leading economy is recovering from the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, given that the daily number of coronavirus infections in the United States remains at a fairly high level, conclusions about the recovery of the American economy or its absence may be premature.
If we develop the topic of COVID-19, the World Health Organization (WHO) has slightly changed its rhetoric. Let me remind you that while the WHO previously considered vaccination to be the only way to combat coronavirus, it now recommends more thorough contact tracking of infected people, stricter compliance with quarantine measures, and more extensive testing of the population. In principle, there is nothing radically new in this statement, and vaccination is still the main factor in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic.
As for market sentiment, the global financial markets are still dominated by cautious optimism based on the imminent introduction of tested vaccines, as well as expectations of the adoption of a stimulus package for the world’s leading economy. Yesterday, as expected, the main currency pair continued to grow. During the trading on Thursday, the quote rose to 1.2174, and trading on December 3 ended at 1.2143. Naturally, today’s trading will be influenced by macroeconomic reports from the United States. However, given the market sentiment, which is clearly not in favor of the US dollar, I would venture to assume that we will not see a fundamental change, and the US currency will end the week with losses across a wide range of markets. At the same time, we cannot exclude corrective rollbacks to 1.2100, 1.2080, 1.2060, 1.2030, and 1.2010. Near all these levels, you should consider buying a pair, especially if signals appear near the indicated marks to open long positions on the four-hour and hourly charts.
But looking at the hourly timeframe, the earliest and most aggressive purchases can be tried near 1.2220. As you can see, there is a simple moving average of 50, and the average line (dotted) of the ascending channel is slightly lower.
At the same time, I would not rule out the possibility of profitable sales today. First, labor data from the US may be strong and support the US dollar. Secondly, on the last trading day of the week, profit-taking is possible, which will cause the US currency to adjust to its previous decline. We will try to outline the results of weekly trades, as well as recommendations for opening new positions, on Monday.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.