MARKET DEVELOPMENT – GBP/USD Options Pricing General Election Risks
GBP: General election risk premium on the rise with the 1-month at-the-money option implied volatility rising to circa 12vols. As it stands, poll trackers conitnue to show the Conservative party with a healthy lead over its rivals with bookmakers placing a Conservative majority outcome as the most likely scenario, particularly after Nigel Farage’s recent U-Turn. That said, voting intentions highlight that the Labour party is gaining ground.
Poll Tracker Shows Conservatives with Commanding Lead
JPY / CHF: Safe-haven currencies are on the defensive as equity markets continue to eke out marginal gains after White House Economic Advisor Kudlow noted that the US and China were nearing a deal. However, this is in contrast with reports from the South China Morning Post, which stated that Trump’s calls for China to purchase $50bln of US agricultral goods are “not possible”. In turn, this may see markets waiting a little longer for a Phase 1 agreement to be signed off by both parties. Elsewhere, eyes will also be on the official statement regarding EU auto tariffs after the deadline had past, as it stands, markets expect another delay.
Source: DailyFX, Refinitiv
Economic Calendar (15/11/19)
WHAT’S DRIVING MARKETS TODAY
- “Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD & AUD/NZD Eyes Critical Support” by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
- “Canadian Dollar – USD/CAD Rally Running into Meaningful Opposition” by Mahmoud Alkudsi, Market Analyst
- “EUR/GBP Outlook – Price Action Continues to Break Down” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst
— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
To contact Justin, email him at [email protected]
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