The Japanese Yen is down more than 4.8% against the US Dollar since the August yearly extremes with USD/JPY rallying into a critical resistance threshold at fresh five-month highs this week- we’re looking for a reaction up here. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY weekly price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling price setup and more.
Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Weekly
Notes: USD/JPY is testing a critical resistance barrier at 109.36/68 – a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range, the March low / July high, and the objective yearly open. The broader August recovery is vulnerable while below this threshold near-term and the focus is on a reaction off this mark.
Initial support rests with the August trendline backed by the 2017 low-week close at 107.84. Broader bullish invalidation now raised to the yearly low-week reversal close at 106.25– a close below this level would be needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend. A topside breach / close above 109.68 keep the focus on the next major resistance zone at 110.70-111.05 – look for a bigger reaction there IF reached.
For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy
Bottom line: The USD/JPY rally is now testing key resistance at multi-month highs and leaves the immediate advance vulnerable near-term while below the yearly open. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. High risk for topside exhaustion here – be on the lookout for support into the August trendline IF price is indeed heading higher. I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.
Japanese Yen Trader Sentiment – USD/JPY Price Chart
- A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/JPY – the ratio stands at -1.11 (47.37% of traders are long) – neutral reading
- Long positions are11.76% higher than yesterday and 6.93% lower from last week
- Short positions are 5.74% higher than yesterday and 23.68% higher from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to rise. Traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/JPY trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
See how shifts in USD/JPY retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!
Previous Weekly Technical Charts
— Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex